Passed Pawn (passedpawn)

#SPX put skew is as cheap as it gets. Two recent comps: 1. Pre-GFC: very low VIX, Fed on hold, low macro vol, Fed put 2. During GFC: VIX exploded >40 so skew naturally flattened as high vol priced into all strikes None of these conditions exist today. Skew seems too cheap. https://i.imgur.com/TfOi6wG.jpg

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Almost $21B flew into equities for the Santa Claus rally. So far not working out. We'll see if they've been naughty or nice this coming week. https://i.imgur.com/XMxAiHw.jpg

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It’s very unusual for wage inflation to fall substantially without unemployment rising first. https://i.imgur.com/4Zx23GN.jpg

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#SPX put skew is as cheap as it gets. Two recent comps: 1. Pre-GFC: very low VIX, Fed on hold, low macro vol, Fed put 2. During GFC: VIX exploded >40 so skew naturally flattened as high vol priced into all strikes None of these conditions exist today. Skew seems too cheap. https://i.imgur.com/TfOi6wG.jpg

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I’m not too worried about either, but Circle uses BlackRock and BNY Mellon to purchase and custody the assets backing USDC so there would have to be fraud across multiple big US regulated institutions.

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Tech is leading the rest of the economy in layoffs while services remain strong for now. I expect 2023 will see broader unemployment pick up. https://i.imgur.com/uyeJNWD.jpg

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Very cool, and like the design

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