@overrunq
When BTC’s 200-day moving average (200DMA) forms a death cross with the Realized Price (200DMA falls below it), historical rebound probability is high. Based on past cycles like 2011-2012, 2014-2015, 2018-2019, and 2022, BTC typically rebounds within 3-12 months, with a probability of about 70%-90%. For instance, after the 2018 cross, it rallied mid-2019; post-2022 cross, it rose in early 2023. Rebound timing and magnitude depend on market cycles, macro conditions, and on-chain metrics. It’s not immediate—consolidation may take months. Current data (as of March 30, 2025) could refine this further.
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