@omidxyz

It feels like the crypto market over the past few months has been reacting far more to anticipated macro outcomes than to the actual economic data itself. This alone shows how elevated the emotional volatility still is, and until the market returns to a more rational baseline, this chaotic back-and-forth is likely to continue. For a long stretch, the entire market was simply waiting for rate cuts. But the moment the cut was officially announced, sentiment flipped because traders were already unsure whether the next meeting would deliver another one. The market sold off immediately. Later, renewed optimism around a single-step rate cut brought some life back, and the introduction of a 25 percent probability for a double cut injected a fresh wave of excitement, but only for a single day. Why? Because balance-sheet data came out right after, showing conditions simply aren’t supportive enough for a two-step cut. In fact, the macro environment looks borderline enough that no cut at all is still on the table, and just like that, markets dumped again. Meanwhile, millions of dollars get liquidated as fear and greed keep getting passed back and forth at hyper-speed. Everyone wants to be the first one on the next move, and even the tiniest piece of data is enough to swing massive amounts of capital. The entire cycle feels more emotional than ever. Honestly, what is going on with this crypto cycle? Sometimes I wish governments and institutional investors had never touched this market. Maybe we need a real fear cycle, one strong enough to purge the system. Let massive holders like MicroStrategy get forced out or even collapse, so maybe the next market cycle can finally return to something resembling rational behavior.

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