@olystuart

Insurance premiums for one single vessel transit through the Straight of Hormuz, for a $150 million cargo ship, have gone from as low as $300,000 before the war to now $6.5 to $7.5 million or up to $15 million if it's an Israeli or US connected ship (info from Gemini). Of course Trump dropped his insane 20% transit tax proposal, but just mentioning the possibility did a lot of damage. I imagine Warsh is going to try and hold rates flat at this upcoming rate announcement but he's hitting more and more pressure to raise rates. June's lower core inflation number may allow them to hold off until the next meeting but the "relief" we already know is a temporary blip in a broader trend of increased economic risk. We are in the eye of the storm, economically speaking. It feels somewhat calm but catastrophe is looming. CRE short term refinancing crisis could be the trigger. Trillions in loans are set to be forced to refinance 2+% higher, causing mass defaults. What are you watching?

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