@niftytime.eth
my buddy has this concept of bet jays (BJs for short) or little bets that he sprinkles on top of sporting events that make them even more enjoyable
recently I’ve been diving into prediction markets - specifically 24-hour weather markets - and I think I found something similar that I’m calling tea bets 🍵
for the past few days, I’ve been predicting daily high temps in Seoul
while I’m in Seoul, my workday starts around 2 am local time, which coincidentally is a great time to take out positions in daily weather markets. there’s enough potential for variance in daily high outcomes such that outside of the consensus forecast, other viable temps can typically be found at bargain prices relative to their potential payouts
let’s take yday as an example
when I woke up around 2 am, 0°C had a greater than 50% chance of being the daily high while -1°C was hovering around 20%. seoul was coming off the coldest day of January into another really cold day. all other variables (wind, humidity, cloud cover) were identical to the previous day
so I put $3 on -1°C with a potential payout of $10 and got on with my day
periodically throughout the day, I checked on the temp after feeling things literally heat up (a little - it was still freaking freezing lol)
then around 3 pm, things started to get crazy in the market as we approached the typical window when we see daily high temps
the -1°C and 0°C markets started to violently flip-flop. in the end, my forecast was right, and I collected my $10 when the markets finally resolved eod
I’ve been right most days and made a little profit as a result, but beyond that, I’ve found myself paying more attention to the little details and natural fluctuations of each day as I take these long-short sips from my daily tea bets
not sure how long I’ll stay locked into weather markets, but I’m really enjoying these little tea bets for now
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