@niftytime.eth

experimenting with getting into the next day's high temp weather market a day early as a way to arb low probability temp forecasts yday I bought $5 of the -4° market for seoul when it was around 5% at this point today it seems unlikely that it'll hit that (most likely goes under) but the market spiked to over 15% odds a little while ago as I've observed happens most days for low-odd-but-sorta-plausible temps around this time in the morning, so i cashed out for a quick 2x note: since this is a niche market, liquidity is low, and slippage is high, so I cashed out at an avg price of 11 cents

2 replies

7 recasts

12 reactions