Nguyên Khánh (ngkhanh025)

BTC orderbook update. Aggregated liquidity delta across spot + futures has flipped back to green. Bids and asks are now roughly balanced. Earlier, delta was ~-$125M (heavy negative), which needed a downside move to reset and neutralize things before any real upside could happen. From here, I’m expecting a move toward sub-$90k, at least a tap around ~$90.9k, before BTC is ready for another push higher. Reset first, then continuation.

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BTC at $94.6k — acceptance is what matters. After liquidity is taken, you want to see BTC *accept* above the range to keep bullish momentum going. What you don’t want is reintegration back into the range. That’s where bullish narratives start to fail.

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MSTR holds ~$59B worth of BTC, yet its market cap is only ~$46B. That’s a ~25% discount to NAV — an $8.8B problem. Why it matters: on Jan 15, MSCI decides whether crypto-related companies get removed from its indices. If that happens, index funds are forced sellers, regardless of price. JPMorgan estimates ~$2.8B of flows tied to MSCI, potentially up to $8.8B if others follow. That’s pure forced selling. MSTR is already down ~66%. If this plays out, the leveraged BTC strategy is under serious pressure.

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what you’re doing right now might not look impressive, but it’s shaping you. that’s not nothing.

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