Bitcoin's 0.78 correlation with the Nasdaq reflects its alignment with risk assets, driven by investor sentiment and liquidity. September Federal Reserve rate decisions could spark decoupling if rate cuts boost liquidity, favoring Bitcoin’s fixed supply and inflation-hedge appeal over Nasdaq’s tech-heavy growth stocks. Lower rates might amplify Bitcoin’s safe-haven narrative, especially if economic uncertainty persists, diverging it from equity trends. Conversely, sustained high rates could deepen correlation, as risk-off sentiment pressures both assets. The April 2024 Bitcoin halving, reducing supply, could further decouple it if demand spikes amid rate shifts. However, if the Fed signals tighter policy, Bitcoin might track Nasdaq declines, delaying decoupling. Ultimately, rate-driven liquidity changes and Bitcoin-specific catalysts could shift its trajectory away from the Nasdaq.
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