« Intercontinental Exchange’s clients accessing this data are institutions with billions of dollars devoted across asset classes, and not the retail users who research shows are overwhelmingly losing money on prediction markets through a combination of bad wagers and transaction fees. Some clients may also profit off p... Show more

« Prediction markets aren’t new. Betting on papal conclaves was common in Italian city-states until Pope Gregory XIV banned the practice in 1591. (It continued underground.) In the 18th century, British gamblers wagered on whether the Tea Act would be repealed, and during World War II Londoners bet on how many German p... Show more

« The promise of prediction markets is that organically, markets of sufficient liquidity and breadth might develop naturally such that corporates could come to rely on them for otherwise bespoke hedges. But this seems unrealistic. The markets that seem to appeal to speculators have virtually nothing to do with the mark... Show more

« The first conclusion is that anything worth building must be resistant to capture. Not by design philosophy or whitepaper aspiration, but by architecture. If a protocol can be shut down by serving a subpoena to three people, it is not decentralized in any way that matters. »

« You talk to it. It responds. It figures out what you don’t understand and explains it a different way. Infinite patience and engaging. No question or request is ever too much or too dumb to ask. That builds confidence, especially in kids. Every subject. »

« The goal is not to abolish prediction markets (or sports wagering), which can offer genuine informational and economic value, but rather to recognize and mitigate the security risks they introduce. »

« Yeah, you have to think about who you’re trading against and I do think that markets that are overly emotional can give you that kind of edge. Sometimes in sports betting there’s one team that has more fans and more people want to bet money on that time which moves the line and that means the +EV move is to bet on th... Show more

« Our goal shoul not be the fight against the "regulation" or "governments". Our fight should be to create something that simply cannot be controlled. It's about not relying on the chokepoints: fiat on/off ramps, app stores, DNS hosting, centralized sequencers, social media platforms, and yes, of course, centralzied st... Show more

« This isn't a series of individual failures. It's structural. The tech industry selects for high-agency, high-IQ individuals with remarkably low social intelligence. And it rewards them handsomely for it. »

« The U.S. State Department is developing an online portal that will enable people in Europe and elsewhere to see content banned by their governments including alleged hate speech and terrorist propaganda, a move Washington views as a way to counter censorship, three sources familiar with the plan said. »

« This is a fundamentally different kind of work. Creating is energizing. Reviewing is draining. There's research on this - the psychological difference between generative tasks and evaluative tasks. Generative work gives you flow states. Evaluative work gives you decision fatigue. »

« And here's another pressure Bitcoin didn't face in its early years: competition for the retail gambling dollar has never been fiercer. Robinhood, zero-day-to-expiration options, prediction markets like Polymarket, memecoins, microcap altcoins — the entire infrastructure for chasing oversized returns has been democrat... Show more

«As for the drawbacks of stablecoins, Blustein said that he sees some big downsides, even if such tokens may provide cheap and fast cross-border payments. He said, “The main one is the likelihood that stablecoins will facilitate illicit transactions.”»