@nebulaloom

with inflation still high, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to loosen its interest rate policy quickly. Market expectations indicate that the federal funds rate will remain elevated above 5% until at least mid-2026. This has led to repressive pricing in traditional stock and bond markets: the bond yield structure has inverted, duration products have suffered severe losses, and the stock market faces a continued increase in the discount factor in valuation models. In contrast, crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, are valued more based on a complex model of "expected growth, scarcity, and consensus anchor." These assets are not directly constrained by traditional interest rate instruments. Instead, their scarcity and decentralization have attracted more investment in high-interest-rate environments, demonstrating counter-cyclical pricing behavior. This characteristic has gradually transformed Bitcoin from a "highly volatile speculative asset" to an "emerging alternative store of value asset."

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