@nanyuanbeishi
The current Bitcoin price trend reflects on-chain indicators seen in 2021, potentially forming a "double top" pattern.
A key signal is the weekly RSI, showing three bearish divergences in March 2024, December 2024, and May 2025—suggesting weakening momentum despite rising prices.
Trading volume also shows slowdown. The recent breakout saw lower volumes than the initial surge past $100,000, with CME Bitcoin futures mostly below 35,000 contracts in the past four weeks, compared to peaks above 85,000 during the prior rally.
Open interest supports this divergence—down 13% since January, while the price dropped only 5.8%. A similar trend occurred in 2021, with open interest down 15.6% despite price gains.
These signs indicate Bitcoin may hit new highs but could repeat the 2021 pattern—peaking before a prolonged bear market.
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