@morenodv
For the first time in history, new whales now represent a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales, signaling a decisive change in who controls the marginal supply of BTC.
Realized Cap measures the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement. When this metric shifts toward new whales (short-term holder whales holding >1,000 BTC with UTXO age below 155 days), it tells us that a significant portion of Bitcoin’s supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices.
Control has moved from experienced, cycle-tested holders to capital that entered late in the trend.
This transition is crucial to understanding current market behavior. The realized price of new whales sits near $98k, while spot price trades below that level. As a result, this cohort is currently holding around $6B in unrealized losses. These losses are not just theoretical but they directly influence behavior.
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