Monteluna (monteluna)

Sharing my thoughts so far here as I'm currently going through the Orbital paper: - Would it be reasonable to assume we just have a single large orbital pool for all USD stable pairs? - Still somewhat confused with this measure of efficiency. Maybe I missed this particular equation. In practice efficiency is usually a measure of liquidity vs. volume, and volume is highly determined by fees. - I want to do a quick comparison analysis of Orbitals and concentrated liquidity. One thing that seems mathematically clear is the efficiency might not be perfectly better compared to all CL positions. I want to figure out a way to convert an Orbital position to an equivalent CL position. I believe the paper but I want to verify this myself. https://www.paradigm.xyz/2025/06/orbital

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I remember writing a lot about Augur and prediction markets when it was around. Back then you wouldn't have the chance to see defi products in Bloomberg articles. Now it's a regular Wednesday discussion. What's interesting is people new to the space keep referring to prediction markets as "truth engines". This is false, and why this particular article is realizing event contracts can financialize executing the outcome. When we discussed this in Augur, we called this "bounty markets" where we expected agents would seed markets purposefully to drive events happening. Instead of truth engines, I would call these systems "information markets". Truth implies binary outcomes and are relative to oracle information, which isn't necessarily true for most questions. It also encapsulates the idea that these are financial products which causes incentives, depending on the markets. I also would say the unlock of blockchains enabled this technology, and there's no way it's going back. People are wildly discounting the implications of a world where a private entity can use crypto to globally affect outcomes. Usually this is done in private backrooms with politicians, and mostly localized. Today it's democratized to anyone in the world with enough capital.

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Railway is not "down". Google suspended their account. This is why people in the crypto space care about decentralized global compute btw. We need to focus less on tokens, and more about rubust applications and businesses where you don't wake up one morning and Big Tech nukes you from orbit.

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The next farcon: - Farcaster will be a $1B protocol with a token. - Everyone who attends will be a true owner of this social network. - There will be multiple businesses generating $1M of revenue using this protocol. Mark my words.

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Farcaster Classic is now a crypto social network with no token, a dusted founding team, no path to profitability since the only attraction is a promise of developer rewards by a centralized team and a history of one and done apps seeded by bots sucking up all the rewards. Hypersnap actually has a decentralized blockchain and is actually crypto, now has a mechanism for economic expansion that is native to the ecosystem, and the ability to stake or burn tokens to make bots costly. I seriously have no idea what people are possibly discussing at farcon that could be even remotely interesting long term at this point.

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People are out here writing thinkpieces to sell snap when the protocol hasn't even launched yet and 99% of the crypto community hasn't even been introduced to the protocol. There is almost no liquidity because there was no backdoor deal for LPs to receive premine tokens. All liquidity is organic. If the protocol starts popping, there is absolutely no one on the market able to provide tokens. All liquidity is held by users. This could get scary going up really fast. Might be one of the greatest bag fumbles in crypto history.

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The Dan era of Farcaster needs to be studied. It really was that easy to bring some life back to the protocol but every time you mentioned it he would respond with some fake genius statement like "what would the token do". Meanwhile @cassie just makes the entire protocol tokenized in a few months and hands it out to the community with like 3 other engineers The correct answer was "whatever the community wants" because that's what a decentralized protocol with a token does.

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