@margueriteben
Basis and term-structure deviations contain predictive content: persistent positive futures premia or elevated basis often reflect intense long demand and can precede corrections as crowded positions unwind; negative basis may signal bearish consensus. Academic and central-bank-style research shows the basis carries some information about future returns, but predictability depends on horizon, liquidity, and whether the premium is driven by genuine demand or synthetic carry trades. Using basis alongside funding, open interest, and order-book imbalances improves signal reliability; relying on basis alone risks false signals from arbitrage flows or technical effects.
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