@mamun1m

Why Prediction Markets Outperform Traditional Forecasting: Traditional forecasting relies primarily on historical data and models. While valuable, this approach often misses important information that isn’t easily quantifiable, such as emerging trends, tacit knowledge, and real-time insights held by individuals close to the ground. Prediction markets capture these missing factors by leveraging human expertise across diverse domains. People with sector-specific knowledge, engineers, traders, policymakers, insiders, hobbyists can all contribute signals that no single dataset contains. Crucially, participants are paid for being right. This incentive structure encourages honest belief revelation and filters out low-quality predictions. Those with better information or sharper judgment naturally gain more influence over prices, while poor forecasters lose capital and fade out.

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