Founders

As much as I want a major cycle to start in early 2024 - a lot of signs indicate that this won't happen until 2025

- L2s are too complicated
- Smart wallets are not the default
- Unclear what the main "meta" is
- Normies don't care about the Halving

New users (and liquidity) won't come onchain until these are solved.

I respectfully disagree here.

L2s are already pretty simple (Base!) and are getting simpler (OP bridging). 
Embedded wallets are getting popular.
Main meta = games & social
Normies don't need to care about the Halving, they just need to see the BTC price going up because of it.

Used to build @kiwi | https://macbudkowski.com/

As long as normies have to care about what a wallet or an L2 is, there will be no mass consumer adoption of crypto. Simple.

Sure - my POV is that we don't need 7 Billion people on board to kick off the next cycle. We just need more early adopters than before and IMO infra is ready for that :)

agree. Many have overblown expectations for the next cycle (again). Yes, number will go up (again) but crypto will still not take over the world...
My bet is that crypto will be the enabler for what will long-term "take over the world".