@liuqisan
Case Study: Buyback and Burn Effectiveness After January 2026 Token Unlock Wave
January 2026 saw over $5.5B in crypto token unlocks, including Hyperliquid (HYPE)'s $322M cliff on Jan 6. Despite HYPE leading 2025 buybacks ($644M spent), post-unlock price declined from ~$26 pre-event to ~$25, with bearish patterns signaling potential drops to $19.
This highlights limited short-term effectiveness: revenue-driven buybacks support long-term supply reduction but often fail to fully offset large one-time dilution and sell pressure.
Optimism (OP)'s Jan 10 unlock precedes planned Feb 2026 buybacks (50% Superchain revenue); ongoing cases suggest mechanisms work better against gradual emissions than cliffs.
Overall, mixed results: strong deflationary intent, variable price stabilization.
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