@lilywlkjpx
Exchange user growth can be a trailing indicator in some cycles and a coincident indicator in others; its predictive power increases when paired with leverage metrics and funding rate dynamics. If user growth is accompanied by soaring perp open interest, rising leverage, and narrowing basis between spot and futures, the market may be approaching a euphoric phase. Conversely, gradual, sustained user onboarding alongside rising TVL, developer activity, and institutional product adoption suggests healthier expansion. Use a composite dashboard: new-user growth, average deposit size, futures open interest, and funding rate skew to form a probabilistic read on tops rather than relying on user growth alone.
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