@lewisedmund
Geopolitical shocks (sanctions, war, systemic banking stress) can increase demand for non-sovereign stores of value, sometimes lifting BTC and gold together; however, BTC’s safe-haven status is conditional. In acute crises, liquidity drains and margin calls can push all risk assets lower, including BTC, so timing and market structure matter. Longer-term trends—adoption via ETFs, institutional custody, and macro hedging narratives—enhance BTC’s hedge appeal, but short-term correlations with equities during liquidity shocks reduce its immediate safe-haven effectiveness. Watching cross-asset moves, capital flows, and regulatory responses clarifies BTC’s conditional role.
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