@kyb

tldr; it’s very unlikely to happen. But it’s also more likely than what the average Canadian believes. If it doesn’t happen imo Canadians should expect to see a western canada bloc form similar to the french canadian bloc quebecois. The Separatist movement just the other day, reached enough signatures to trigger a referendum once the signatures get verified. Current support for separatist movement is sitting around 30% of the eligible voter base give or take a few %. This jumps up to around 40% if you include people who are potentially willing to vote yes to send Ottawa a message. Still well below the necessary amount to trigger legal proceedings. If voters do not show up to vote there is a real possibility it passes. Which would trigger the clarity act (the legal process outlined for succession from canada), this essentially sets up negotiations betwen alberta as a province and the federal government. The federal government has to approve of it, which if it reaches it, they likely wont, which will trigger massive litigation battles. If i were to guess separation wont happen, and like what happened with quebec trying to separate, western Canada will form a party bloc similar to the french canadian bloc quebecois party that formed around french separatist movement. Because of Ottawa’s western alienation policy. Unless carney some how magically turns things around in western Canada.

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