Hollywood style linear illusion The Achilles' heel of Western funding lies in "linear logic": the belief that dictators are isolated and fragile, and that once rumors spread, the regime collapses. This emotional bet exposes their ignorance of the non Western world - they are accustomed to the fragile structure of layers of hearings and simply cannot understand the survival instinct of "strongman politics". Cold eyed bystanders who strip away their stance To make this money, you must strip yourself of likes and dislikes and turn yourself into a cold observation machine. When I look at Iran, what I see is not just Ayatollah Khamenei, but the IRGC as a complex community of interests. Maintaining stability is the highest logic for this deep state system. The real crisis is not the clamor on Twitter, but the military's movements. Before there is a physical signal of power transfer, all silence is for survival, not collapse.
- 0 replies
- 0 recasts
- 0 reactions
The Price of Arrogance: The Harvesting Game of "Cognitive Dimensionality Reduction" on Polymarket In predicting the market, there is a kind of windfall that I call the 'Western Pride Tax'. Watching the odds of Ayatollah Khamenei stepping down break through 30% on Polymarket, what I see is not risk, but perfect cognitive arbitrage. As former foreign exchange analysts, regardless of any ideology, looking solely at the physical structure of geopolitics, these European and American traders are indulging in Tehran with Hollywood scripts.
- 0 replies
- 0 recasts
- 0 reactions
A foolish reporter taunted President Trump, asking if Congress had been notified before taking action. Secretary of State Rubio: "We immediately called members of Congress afterward. Such operations cannot be notified to Congress in advance... Essentially, this was an action to arrest two fugitives indicted by U.S. judicial authorities..." President Trump: "Congress has a tendency to leak information. That's not a good thing."
- 0 replies
- 0 recasts
- 0 reactions