@kazani

Recently, several researchers from various labs have reiterated that things are moving very fast and there is no plateau in sight. The latest is Sholto Douglas from Anthropic: https://youtu.be/FQy4YMYFLsI?si=hYuwcU3YECVyNlkr&t=3440 Ignore this at your own peril. Quote: Over the last year, RL has finally allow[ed] us to take a feedback loop and turn it into a model that is at least as good as the best humans at a given thing in a narrow domain. And you're seeing that with mathematics and competition code, which are the two domains most amendable to this - where rapidly the models are becoming incredibly competent competition mathematicians and competition coders. There's nothing intrinsically different about competition code and math. It's just that they're really [more] amenable to RL than any other domain. But importantly, they demonstrate there's no intellectual ceiling on the models. They're capable of doing really tough reasoning given the right feedback loop. So, we think that same approach generalizes to basically all other domains of human intellectual endeavor where given the right feedback loop, these models will [become] at least as good as the best humans at a given thing. And then once you have something that is at least as good as the best humans at a thing, you can just run 1,000 of them in parallel or 100x faster and you have something that's even just with that condition substantially smarter than any given human. And this is completely throwing aside whether or not it's possible to make something that is smarter than a human. The implications of this are pretty staggering, right? In the next 2 or 3 years given the right feedback loops, given the right compute, etc., we think that we as the AI industry as a whole on track to create something that is at least as capable as most humans on most computer-facing tasks possibly as good as many of our best scientists at their fields. It'll be sharp and spiky, there'll be examples of things it can't [do]. But the world will change. ... I think this is worth crying from the rooftops a little bit - guys, anything that we can measure seems to be improving really rapidly. Where does that get us in 2 or 3 years? I can't say for certain. But I think it's it's worth building into worldviews that there's a pretty serious chance that we get AGI.

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