@polymarket best trading platform in the world
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How important is it to understand the rules? The same ptoy event, the same options: on @polymarket ,it ended up zeroed out due to a rules determination, while on @lifiprotocol.eth some folks walked away loaded with profits 🤔
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Why do I always end up betting big on FOMC tail-end positions in PM? There are 3 reasons: 1. The Fed's expectation management is a very important part of its monetary policy. When approaching FOMC, once the CME FedWatch probability reaches 85% or above, its interest rate decision can be said to be almost a sure thing. A black swan reversal occurring in these 5 days would cause a bloodbath-style strike on the financial markets. 2. Before the transition, Jpow's term of Fed decisions is completely based on data. After today's September PCE data is released, there are no more sufficient data in the next 5 days to support changing the Fed's rate cut stance. 3. Based on the above two points, why is there still about 5 points of room for profit? This is caused by funds hedging their own risk positions. But I think this is undoubtedly stupid, because whether to cut or not has a complex impact on risk assets—it's not a simple up or down. Even if there's a cut, it could still lead to a decline due to Jpow's hawkish attitude. Therefore, buying "no change" here cannot achieve any effective hedge. Based on the above points, I think this is simply 5 days for 5 points, free money with over 300% APR. DYOR, NFA
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