the internet is the ultimate accelerator, it’s just never been allowed to invest like one
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confident prediction markets will prove to be a much better primitive for a new breakout social network than memecoin / token trades prediction markets have semantic content.. they carry meaning, information, and claims about the world. that alone will produce better posts, debates, identity formation, and signal. they also scale across every interest category, and “be right” games are far more broadly appealing than “be early” games. if you look closely a surprisingly high percentage of tweets could already be expressed through prediction markets. add skin in the game to every take, a cost to being wrong, and new status games tied to verifiable accuracy and you reorganize attention flows around real insight and correctness instead of engagement slop. drinking the kool-aid right now, but genuinely think this could eat away at twitter (see: eugene wei's status as a service) if prediction markets play out the way many expect
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wonder what would happen if even a small percentage of the trillions of dollars returned to institutional LPs every decade went to the people of the internet instead guess we'll find out
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