In human systems, successful protocols are those that navigate the rebound effects their own efficiencies create, rather than those that achieve the greatest efficiency in isolation. I've been working on a protocol lifecycle: 1. Initial protocol design solves coordination problems. 2. Efficiency improvements expand adoption and utility. 3. Partial rebounds occur as usage increases. 4. Complete rebounds emerge in certain domains as protocol efficiencies drive their accelerated exploitation. 5. Protocol debt accumulates as backward compatibility entrenches vulnerabilities. 6. New protocols emerge, or existing weak protocols are integrated, to address the emergent challenges and unintended consequences stemming from the lifecycle of preceding protocols.
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Even with perfect information and infinite computing power some things are inherently unknowable https://www.quantamagazine.org/next-level-chaos-traces-the-true-limit-of-predictability-20250307/
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Vibe Coding -> Vibe-Driven Development (VDD) -> AI-Driven Specification-Oriented Software Development AlexNet in 2012 based on the CNN architecture that used GPUs and CUDA was the breakthrough moment for deep learning. So, from that perspective it's been just over a decade to get to "vibe coding". It's conceivable AI-driven specification-oriented software development will emerge by 2029, if not before.
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