@jdferguson.base.eth
Why This Bitcoin Cycle Feels Different 👀
📈Chart 1 shows Bitcoin’s deviation from its long term trend vs ISM PMI.
Notice how post 2016, BTC tracks economic expansion/contraction almost step for step. When PMI expands, BTC outperforms. When PMI contracts, BTC bleeds vs trend.
📈Chart 2 overlays that relationship with Bitcoin’s declining inflation rate.
As issuance fell from ~25% → <1%, the supply shock lost dominance. At the same time, the PMI correlation strengthened. That’s the regime shift.
📈Chart 3 shows statistical significance.
The BTC-PMI relationship became highly significant before the 2016 halving and has only strengthened since. This wasn’t created by halvings — it emerged independently.
📈Chart 4 compares early vs recent Bitcoin history.
Pre 2018: macro explained ~18% of BTC’s deviations.
Post 2018: macro explains ~51%.
That’s institutionalization in the data.
Conclusion: 👀
Halvings still matter for long term scarcity.
They no longer control cycle timing.
Bitcoin is now a macro asset.
Liquidity, growth, and risk appetite decide bull markets.
Not a 4 year clock.
Right now looks like a transition phase: strong structural demand, but macro hasn’t fully flipped risk on yet.
The next real bull likely needs:
🟦PMI ↑
🟦Liquidity ↑
🟦Financial conditions easing.
Who else believes the traditional 4 year cycle is no longer the major driver of $BTC ?
Institutionalization changes everything.
🌟Gold added $3.7T in market cap in 72 hours.
Bitcoin’s entire market cap is $1.68T.
🌟Gold moved more value in 3 days than Bitcoin is worth in total.
That’s what institutional flows look like.
Let that sink in. 👀
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