Analyst: Every strong price acceleration that quickly turns large volumes of coins from losses to profits pushes the 30-day simple moving average of the UTXO P/L ratio above 200. The higher the jump, the closer the market is moving to the overheating and/or distribution phase.

Today, the ratio is at 99, so there is no signal of overheating yet. A sustained move above 200 in the SMA would serve as a clear warning of a new wave of euphoria. In other words, the market can still reach new highs, but the “easy” fuel for the P/L ratio is almost exhausted, and it will need much stronger momentum or significant price movements to start rising again. As we noted yesterday, the third compression of this cycle is exactly the spring that should push the ratio above 200 into overheating.