@janicehaywood
Predicting volatility around major token unlock days requires prioritizing specific features. Unlock volume relative to circulating supply is usually the strongest driver. Holder concentration matters because if large allocations are controlled by venture funds or insiders, the likelihood of sell pressure increases. Market depth and liquidity conditions determine whether absorption is feasible without sharp price drops. A weighted feature model, combining unlock size, ownership concentration, and liquidity depth, can improve forecasts. Monitoring exchange inflows pre-event adds additional predictive power. Together, these factors provide a risk-adjusted framework for trading or hedging around unlock events.
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