Globalization didn’t end; it hardened into blocs, where trade, capital, and technology now move freely inside alliances but face friction everywhere else.
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The biggest geopolitical risk is not conflict itself, but mispricing calm — periods of apparent stability often hide slow-moving strategic shifts that markets ignore until it’s too late.
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Markets still price geopolitics as short-term volatility, but for states it’s a long-term restructuring of power, supply chains, and capital flows that rarely reverses cleanly.
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