@iamtherealyakuza.eth
Today I woke up earlier than usual, around 6:30, and somehow ended up betting on weather predictions using government APIs 🤣
Turns out NOAA (the US government’s weather forecasting network) runs a $6B federal supercomputer that publishes hyper-accurate forecasts for specific weather stations across the US.
And Polymarket lets you bet on whether NYC hits 42°F on a given day.
So I spent some time doing this:
- Find the Polymarket weather market for NYC for a specific day
- Check the resolution rules, it was based on LaGuardia Airport specifically
- Hit api.weather.gov/points with LaGuardia’s coordinates to find the right forecast grid
- Hit the hourly forecast URL api to get the actual temperatures for that day
- Compared against Polymarket’s temperature buckets
Noticed the market had 40-41°F as favourite while NOAA was pointing clearly to 42°F
Placed the bet in it. Now I wait 🤣
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