Hugh Naylor

@hughnaylor

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Per yesterday’s announcement

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Hoping this ceasefire holds 🤞but don’t wanna get my hopes too high

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Will check this out!

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I mean they are certainly on their back foot (though one could make the argument that israel is too after these attacks on Haifa and TA). And Iran could very well end up getting crushed. But I agree that there is an underestimation of their capabilities, and this partly explains why the Israelis seem to want the US to get involved so badly. Iran is too big and too well armed, it seems, but ya never know

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I dunno. They seem to be knocking drones out of the sky. I think initially the Israelis were able to go in unencumbered, but that doesn’t seem to be the case anymore. I don’t think their air defenses were decimated, in short, though certainly they have taken some hits

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Now a spicy prediction: Hezbollah is regrouping and could re-enter the conflict if the fighting with Iran intensifies — primarily because the Lebanese state has been unable to counter in the eyes of the public ongoing Israeli military moves in southern Lebanon, thereby giving more political room for the group to fight again. Though it is obvs a degraded force

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Beers on me if I’m wrong, sir! And yeah their proxies, apart from the Houthis and the Iraqi militias, have been decimated

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Hard to say you have air superiority when an operation of this size can take place at litteral target one

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The argument is that the airstrikes are certainly happening, including cruise, drone and likely ballistics. But apart from the drones, most of those strikes are now originating outside of Iranian airspace or slightly within it (although early on, because of the shock and awe attack, the strikes seem to have happened more within iranian airspace … but the Iranians appear to have regrouped — hence the reported shooting down of more drones and, less likely, piloted aircraft — and now reasserted much more control over their airspace)

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Their cruise missile can def be fired from Iraq, or lot of them can

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Narratives coming undone here

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All info claims that Israeli jets totally dominate Iran’s airspace are still unconfirmed. The more this conflict goes on, including with Iranian claims of jets and drones being downed, the more I think the claims are exaggerated. Just as the claims that Iranian missile attacks on Israel have had little effect. They’ve had a big effect. Just follow, for example, Yossi Melman’s feed. Narratives are being undone as the war drags on

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Who says there are jets over Tehran? Israel?

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Not sure what the question is. But there is now concern that much of the uranium from those sites has been smuggled out, but no one knows precisely when or where. If Israel had air superiority, then seemingly they would have drones flying overhead that would have captured the intel. Seems that is not the case

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New theory: Iran’s air defenses are still intact, somewhat, and most strikes by Israel have been missiles launched from Iraqi airspace or drones smuggled into Iran and then launched. Helps explain why there’s a gaping lack of intelligence of what happened to the nuclear sites in Iran allegedly destroyed by the US

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You were right, sir, unfortunately

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