First Buyers Supply (FBS) refers to the amount of BTC purchased and held by new investors. Compared with simple “new address count,” FBS offers a much clearer read on investor risk appetite and shifts in market demand. In this cycle, the market’s participant mix looks very different from previous ones, with ETF buyers, BTC treasury holders, options market makers, and more entering the ecosystem. As a result, investor behavior has changed significantly as well. Once these activities are reflected on-chain, the data that represents new buyers becomes closely tied to BTC price movements.First Buyers Supply (FBS) refers to the amount of BTC purchased and held by new investors. Compared with simple “new address count,” FBS offers a much clearer read on investor risk appetite and shifts in market demand. nts new buyers becomes closely tied to BTC price movements.
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比特币可能进入“收敛震荡时代” 大周期涨跌幅缩小 走势越来越趋向“成熟资产” 不再复刻过去的 4 年牛熊剧烈周期 类似于： 从“10 倍币 → 2 倍币” 从“腰斩 → 温和回调”
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12 月 11 日美联储降息 25bp 的概率高达 94% → 市场已经提前 price-in，“利好落地”通常意味着利好出尽、可能反向。 → 倾向于在利好落地后做空（即市场提前涨完，公布后反跌）。 12 月 19 日日本央行加息概率 90% → 这又是一个潜在大事件，会影响美元、日元、全球风险资产。 → 逻辑是：11 日后的空单可以拿着，等 19 日是否加息作为新的驱动因素。 K 线出现假突破 + 基本面共振 → 昨天市场有一波下跌，并伴随 “假突破”（fake breakout）。 → 技术面与事件预期方向一致，是“波段反转的可能信号”。
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