Will clustered token unlocks trigger a next-wave “sell-off washout”? Yes — concentrated unlocks reliably raise circulating supply and create selling pressure; studies and market trackers show ~90% of unlock events produce negative price pressure and elevated volatility, especially when team/VC allocations hit cliffs. Market impact is larger if unlocks coincide with thin orderbooks or weak ETF demand.
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Long-term holders (LTHs) show resilience, rarely moving coins despite volatility. They treat dips as buying opportunities. Short-term speculators (STHs) react quickly, chasing momentum or panic-selling in downturns. This divergence drives market liquidity and volatility cycles.
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During altseasons, a rolling 7-day drawdown threshold around 15–20% often balances sensitivity and noise. This helps trigger risk management without excessive false stops during volatile rallies.
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