@hetianyu
Bitcoin miners' average production cost is $102,000 per BTC (Jan 2026), above spot price ($90,000–$91,000), fueling intense selling and capitulation. Recent hashrate declines, difficulty drops (2.6%), and high outflows indicate miner surrender—historically a contrarian bottom signal.
In price rebounds: Rising BTC above breakeven reduces forced selling; inefficient miners exit, efficient ones hold/accumulate, easing supply pressure and enabling sustained rallies.
Cycle Bottom Judgment Framework:
Peak miner outflows + hashrate/difficulty drop → Capitulation underway.
Hashrate stabilization & recovery (e.g., Hash Ribbons buy signal).
Price exceeds avg. mining cost; selling subsides.
Miners resume accumulation.
Post-capitulation periods often precede strong rebounds (77% historical positive 180-day returns).
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