I’ve only just started exploring prediction markets and noticed an opportunity to pick up some percentage gains. In events with many possible outcomes, you can sometimes find orderbook inefficiencies where the total price of all outcomes adds up to less than $1. Examples: how many goals will be scored in a match, or how many encore songs an artist will play at a concert - outcomes that are independent of the event itself. Three outcomes, or 3+. Prices like 0.12, 0.41, 0.37 cents, etc. With more outcomes, due to a skewed orderbook, the total can add up to $0.90 By buying proportionally across all outcomes, the mechanic is simple. One of the outcomes will resolve as true and settle at $1 anyway meaning you generate volume on market and lock in roughly 10%.
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Somewhere between my whining and a more constructive take on the niche I stayed in for too long — and failed to adapt in time or move my portfolio into stables. Meet Yuki.
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I’m seeing capitulation from a large number of influencers. My own portfolio is essentially wiped out as well. I don’t see much positivity and honestly don’t know how to make money in the current market. My niche was very specific — airdrops. I’ve been in this space since 2022 and worked as an editor, and I won’t be afraid to say it: professionally. We built an entire platform focused on crypto activities, and our audience received some of the biggest and loudest airdrops in crypto. Right now, this niche feels dead. I’ll share my thoughts on the reasons later. For now, let this page be a personal diary of an impoverished crypto native.
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