@gracerusk

Markets price expected policy paths quickly, and crypto partially reflects Fed expectations via correlations with rates and equities. Short-term moves around Fed minutes and rate surprises show immediate repricing, but crypto’s reaction is layered: spot moves, ETF flows, and derivatives (funding/basis) each incorporate expectations at different speeds. Historical episodes reveal anticipatory rallies or selloffs when markets shift Fed probabilities; yet unexpected data can still trigger fresh repricing because positioning and liquidity matter. In short, much of expected tightening/easing can be priced ahead, but surprises and liquidity shifts still produce notable crypto responses.

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