@gedja

Why is Bitcoin not following stocks or other risk assets and moving up? Jordi Visser wrote a great Substack on the topic. I'm going to summarize it a bit for you 5-second attention span degens Key takeaway: This isn’t the end of Bitcoin. It’s not even the beginning of the end. It’s the end of the beginning. ✅ Key ideas 1. Silent IPO metaphor -Visser argues that Bitcoin is undergoing what resembles a public-company IPO phase: early holders (founders, “OG” investors) are gradually distributing their holdings to new holders. -As in an IPO lock-up expiry, you often see sideways / consolidating price behavior rather than sharp collapse or immediate breakout. -He says: “The sellers aren’t selling because they’ve lost faith. They’re selling because they’ve won.” 2. Consolidation ≠ collapse -Despite a sometimes flat price and poor sentiment (people wondering why BTC isn’t “pumping with risk assets”), the fundamentals are argued to be strong: institutional flows, network hash-rate, ETF approvals (in jurisdictions that allow them) are healthy. -On-chain data shows coins that were dormant (held by early adopters) are now moving/being distributed. This suggests active ownership change rather than panic selling. 3. Implications for maturity and future dynamics -As ownership becomes more distributed (less concentration among early holders), Bitcoin is argued to mature: volatility may decline, the asset may transition from “experiment” to more institutional grade. -For now, this process takes time; expect continued consolidation, potentially divergent behavior from other risk assets (e.g., stocks) for a while

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