@gavelsv
Polymarket is right, again. Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition
After AI didn’t win TIME’s Person of the Year, the market snapped and YES odds blasted to 92%
The rules are simple: if any of these five events occur, the market resolves NO
- AI is named TIME’s 2025 Person of the Year
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins an IMO gold medal
- An AI model hits ≥ 90% on FrontierMath
- An AI model hits ≥ 85% on ARC-AGI-2
Polymarket traders expected TIME to crown “Artificial Intelligence” this year
The plan was obvious: wait for the announcement, bet NO, and print an instant 100% profit
But instead, TIME named Architects of AI Person of the Year
Which means the biggest threat is already off the board and the remaining four events are extremely unlikely to happen in December
That’s why YES is sitting above 92% even this early
Another classic “Nothing Ever Happens” market that’s drifting straight into a YES finish
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