@gambling

Reflection after Friday. #toptraders Friday's collapse was caused by technically forced selling, not emotional. There was major manipulation amid panic and the exploitation of a vulnerability on Binance. During the capitulation, it wasn't people who were selling, but liquidation systems and bots. Only a few people were doing the selling—and that's important to understand. From this perspective, Friday's drop doesn't resemble the COVID dump, nor May 2021, nor February 2025. In those cases, people were selling into any order in the order book based on emotion: greed (2025) or fear (2020, 2021). The closest thing is the Terra crash. A systemic failure, where the initial selling was purely technical due to UST deposits. BUT! That was 2022 and the beginning of tightening—rate increases and liquidity squeeze. Things are different now: 1. A cycle of rate cuts and periodic pauses in QT. The global money supply is growing. 2. Trump needs to reach an agreement with China and other countries. He needs results, and fast. Tariff wars will hit the economy by Q1–Q2 2026, weakening the Republicans' electoral position. We saw some negotiating pressure on Friday. A meeting with Xi is scheduled for late October. 3. The shutdown won't last forever. The issue will be resolved in the coming weeks. These are three positive macro factors. Although, of course, Trump could overreact at this point. ➖➖➖ There are several scenarios to consider. The development has already begun. 🔘Optimistic. The rhetoric on China has already begun to shift. The budget will be adopted at the next few meetings. The reversal is V-shaped. 🔘Neutral. Pressure on China continues. The shutdown is being delayed. But by the end of October, all issues will be resolved. Then, flat. Friday's lows for BTC and ETH may be updated. 🔘Pessimistic. The budget is being delayed. The meeting with Xi is canceled. Then, macro markets will fall, and crypto will have a hard time. Unlikely, but keep this in mind

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