@forbiddenone
✅$UXLINK Migration Bet: How I Quadrupled My Money
Timeline
1. 9/23 $UXLINK Hacking
2. 10/31 Token Swap Support Announcement (Update, Bithumb, Coinone)
3. 11/28 ~ Token Swap and Withdrawal
Betting Basis
The announcement at the time stated support for three swaps.
1) If the pre-hack holdings are the same as the delisting holdings
» 1:1 swap
2) If the pre-hack holdings are less than the pre-hack holdings at the time of delisting
» 1:1 swap of the entire holdings at the time of delisting
3) If the pre-hack holdings are more than the pre-hacking holdings at the time of delisting
» Swap using a "separate ratio"
Here, let's make some assumptions.
Assumption 1) Upbithumb closed fairly quickly at the time of the hack, making it difficult to add tokens.
» I don't think the amount of tokens received from the hack was significant.
(Coinone closed late, so it received several billion won.)
Assumption 2) I believe there are 100% cases where the pre-hacking holdings are not equal to the pre-hacking holdings due to reasons such as not reading the notice properly.
Assumption 3) This is the ratio I assumed. Upbit 10 billion, hacked 2 billion // Only the 8 billion I read the notice for were swapped at a 1:1 ratio.
The remaining 2 billion + hacked 2 billion were swapped at a 2:1 ratio.
I placed a large bet at 3-5 won to maximize my profit and loss, but it didn't reach that level.
We quickly scraped DAO at 7.5-8.5 won right before delisting.
(At this price, I thought the downside was a significant bet, so I couldn't make a big bet.)
In the end, the final swap ratio was around 1:1 for both Upbit and Bithumb.
Bithumb's bet was around 4x, and Upbit's was around 3-3.5x.
Since the swap ratio allowed for a total loss, I bet around 2.5 million won. Overall, I bet around 1 won on DAO.