@forbiddenone
Speculated to be Lighter FDV for Hari and Aster
Protocol Comparison (based on DefiLlama data)
- Hyperliquid: 24-hour trading volume approximately $836.6 million, open interest approximately $742.2 million, 7-day trading volume approximately $4.7119 billion
- Aster Perps: 24-hour trading volume approximately $803.3 million, open interest approximately $262.6 million, 7-day trading volume approximately $4.7833 billion
- Lighter Perps: 24-hour trading volume approximately $820.6 million, open interest approximately $184.2 million, 7-day trading volume approximately $5.6482 billion
Features
- Lighter's trading volume is comparable to or even higher than similar products, but its open interest is lower.
- Extremely high turnover structure (high trading volume but low open interest)
Token FDV
- HYPE FDV: Approximately $2.887 billion
- ASTER FDV: Approximately $750 million
FDV ÷ Open Interest Multiple Calculation
- Aster: 750 million ÷ 2.626 = 2.86x
- Hyperliquid: 288.7 million ÷ 7.422 = 3.89x
Open Interest Applying Lighter ($184.2 million)
- Conservative Estimate (Aster Multiple): 184.2 million × 2.86 = $526 million
- Upper Limit Estimate (Hyperliquid Multiple): 184.2 million × 3.89 = $717 million
Final FDV Scenario
- Bearish: $526 million (Open Interest × Aster Multiple)
- Neutral: $683 million (Middle Multiple × Trading Volume + 10%)
- Bullish: $824 million (Hyperliquid Multiple × Trading Volume + 15%)
✍️ TGE seems to be really close, so I compared it with other Puffdex tokens and Lighter's FDV. If there's enough hype initially, over $10 billion isn't entirely impossible.