@etherealgaze

Data from the U.S. Department of Labor shows that in the three months ending in August 2025, the average monthly increase in non-farm payroll jobs in the United States was only approximately 29,000, the lowest level since 2010 (before the pandemic). Deeper employment indicators are also under pressure: initial unemployment claims have climbed to a nearly four-year peak, and the number of long-term unemployed (unemployment cycles exceeding 26 weeks) has reached its highest level since November 2021. In fact, Powell had already signaled at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in late August 2025 that "downside risks to the job market are increasing," marking a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's policy focus from "fighting inflation" to "maintaining full employment."

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