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PE

@esruft

270 Following
113 Followers
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I'll tell you from personal experience — when I was studying statistics during my master's at university, we had a professor from Asia. It was immediately clear that the guy lived numbers and probabilities. It was extremely uninteresting at the time. But once I started attaching some monetary value to decisions, and everything was going into the red, it became painful. That’s when I started going back to the lectures that guy gave, and eventually, I grasped the essence of everything he was trying to convey. I'll say this — you probably won’t like it at first. Most likely, you'll read a bit and then give up, because it’s hard to digest. But eventually, you’ll come back to it — because money is on the line. When I know that my hypothesis has statistical support under a set of conditions and tested assumptions — I sleep better at night.
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Why aren’t you making money even when you’re doing everything right? A very common question: “Why am I doing everything right, but still losing money?” Answer: because trading is not a deterministic system. It’s a probabilistic game — everything is built on probabilities. You can enter a trade according to your system — and still end up with a loss. Not because you're stupid. But because that's how probability distribution works. Sure, you might have a strategy with a 60% win rate over time. But that doesn't mean you can’t lose 5 times in a row. That’s just noise. That’s just math. If you feel like you’re “doing everything right” and still losing — don’t immediately question your system. Reconsider your expectations. In trading, you can do everything right — and still lose. But if you keep doing everything right for long enough — statistics will carry you through.
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90% of retail traders lose money. That’s a fact no one is surprised by anymore. The market isn’t a casino — it’s a zero-sum game. Money doesn’t just vanish or appear out of thin air. For every winner, there’s a loser. Someone takes a loss — someone else profits. One trader provides liquidity — another takes it. It's fair in the same way a knife fight is fair. Every day you step into the market to be someone’s counterparty. The only question is — whose? If you trade without a plan, without emotional control, without tracking stats — relying on three textbook indicators and “I feel like it’ll go up” entries — you’re just an easy target. To be among the 10%, you need to realize: you’re not fighting the chart — you’re fighting other people's intentions. Your goal isn't to guess the price — it’s to understand what others are likely to do and why. Stats, risk management, and a trading framework aren’t optional — they’re your body armor.
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Trading is 10% buying, 10% selling, and 80% waiting. And it's that "waiting" where most people struggle. The human brain is wired for action. We need to feel in control. We want to click buttons, move stop losses, open new trades, “fix” the situation. But in the market — often the best move is to do nothing at all. And then it begins: you’ve bought an asset, the market moves sideways or slightly down — anxiety kicks in. You start doubting your idea, feel like exiting, re-entering, switching strategies. Then the asset takes off — but you’re already out of the position or took profit too early. All because you didn’t wait. So how do the pros do it? They do their homework, enter the trade, set their levels and… wait. Weeks, months — doesn’t matter. They don’t need to constantly “feel like a trader.” They think in probabilities, not emotions. A position isn’t entertainment — it’s just a tool. And if you enter correctly, the market will reward you. Just not immediately.
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