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According to ChainCatcher, data scientist Alex McCullough’s research shows that the prediction market Polymarket is 90% accurate in predicting events that will occur one month later. Four hours before the event, the accuracy rate is as high as 94%. McCullough analyzed Polymarket’s historical data and found that after removing extreme probability values, the platform slightly but consistently overestimated the probability of events in most probability ranges. It may be affected by factors such as herd mentality, low liquidity, and participants’ preference for high-risk bets.

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