Austin
@enggih
Here comes a long post on the future of prediction markets. @barmstrong had a great cast on the crypto developments he is most excited for in 2025 and number 2 was my favorite prediction markets. With the most recent U.S. election PMs have burst onto the mainstream with large players like @polymarket predicting in real time who would win the election. Companies like predictit, kalshi, snd betfair along with crypto protocols like polymarket and seer.pm will put a lot of the traditional pollsters out of business in much the same way the internet disrupted the newspaper/journalist biz. Even polymarket hired the famous political prognisticator Nate Silver as an advisor. PMs tap directly into the wisdom of the crowds while providing a financial incentive that has proven more accurate than traditional polling. Crypto is uniquely positioned to be the nexus of PMs because of its permissionless trustless nature governed by smart contracts that provides instant payouts, low fees, and cuts out the middleman.
2 replies
0 recast
2 reactions
Austin
@enggih
What follows is a basic rundowm of how PMs work and the unique design choices seer.pm took that positions itself as a major player in the coming years 🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵🧵
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Austin
@enggih
A market is created around a specific event. Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA championship in 2025? (PLEASE GOD) or will the price of $ETH be above 4000 USD by June 1st 2025? (Prayers UP). Now most prediction markets like predictit, betfair, and @polymarket curate and put forth their own markets they deem worthy. But seer.pm is giving the power back to the people
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
Austin
@enggih
Seer.pm has permissionless market creation,,, but wait noooo won't this fracture the liquidittyyyyy. There are two great solutions one is market verification so users know the market is safe and there is a points airdrop campaign going on right now for select markets to drive more liquidity to said marketss. Token incentivizers rejoiceee. You can get bridge over to the @gnosischain to begin farming awayy
1 reply
0 recast
0 reaction
Austin
@enggih
Now comes the fun part in actually trying to predict the future by buying and selling shares. The prices and probabilites are based on the supply and demand. Seems simple no, bjt under the hood there are conditional tokens that represent a claim on a future event. Which are distinct ERC1155 tokens. These are often tied to the frontend, but seer.pm goes above and beyond for us DeFi enjoyyyeersss and make them into DeFi legos by wrapping them into ERC20 tokens🧙♂️🧙♂️🧙♂️🧙♂️wizards are the realest. Opens up a whole host of opportunities for innovation with Dex's, lending and borrowing protocol, etc. Yield on top of yield on top of yield hopefully in the near future. You could spin up your own liquidity pool and pair your token with Dai as the fungible tokens are not tied to the seer frontend.
1 reply
0 recast
1 reaction
