Technical divergences (e.g., price 新高 but RSI not) warn of reversals, but crypto’s high volatility makes signals less reliable than in stocks—false divergences are common. To improve accuracy, combine multiple indicators: ① Top divergence: price 新高 + RSI 不新高 + MACD bearish crossover; ② Bottom divergence: price 新低 + RSI 不新低 + volume spike. For example, if Bitcoin hits $125k (新高) but RSI is 60 (vs. 75 at prior high) + MACD crosses down, a 10-15% drop is likely.
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Infrastructure projects (e.g., Ethereum, Solana) are valued on network effects and scalability—key metrics include transaction throughput, developer activity, and ecosystem size. Their value lies in supporting other apps, so revenue often comes from network fees or staking. Application projects (e.g., DeFi lending apps, Web3 games) depend on user growth and monetization—metrics like active users, retention rates, and revenue per user matter more. In bull markets, applications outperform as user adoption surges; in bear markets, infrastructure is more resilient (since apps rely on their underlying networks). Adjust priorities: bull cycles favor apps with proven traction (e.g., high loan volumes); bear cycles prioritize infrastructure with stable revenue (e.g., consistent staking yields) and long-term roadmap progress (e.g., Ethereum’s upgrades).
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With 2025's global energy price volatility, Bitcoin mining is shifting geographically. Regions with stable, cheap energy, like parts of North America and Kazakhstan, are attracting more miners as energy costs account for 60 - 70% of mining expenses. As a result, the global hash rate distribution is changing, with these regions seeing a 20 - 30% increase in 算力. Mining - related projects in these areas may have higher investment value due to lower operational costs and more stable mining conditions.
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