@demian

Bankless&Bitwise about crypto Ttop 10 Core Predictions: 1. Bitcoin breaks the four-year cycle and volatility declines Bitcoin will break away from the traditional four-year halving cycle and reach new all-time highs. At the same time, as institutional capital becomes the dominant force, Bitcoin’s volatility will decline and is expected to fall below that of Nvidia. 2. ETF demand absorbs more than 100% of new supply Spot ETFs will purchase more Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana than their net new issuance from mining or staking. Accelerating institutional demand will lead to a structural exhaustion of sell-side liquidity. 3. On-chain vaults double in scale On-chain vaults, often described as “ETF 2.0,” will become a mainstream asset management model. Assets under management (AUM) in these vaults are expected to double, positioning them as a core component of the future asset management landscape. 4. Stablecoins face regulatory friction in emerging markets Despite continued adoption, stablecoins will be accused of undermining monetary stability in emerging markets, prompting tighter capital controls or heightened regulatory pressure from local central banks. 5. The Clarity Act drives ETH and SOL to new highs If the U.S. Clarity Act passes, with an estimated probability of 60%, it will establish a clearer regulatory framework for the industry and directly propel Ethereum and Solana to new all-time highs. 6. Half of Ivy League endowments enter crypto An estimated 50% of Ivy League university endowment funds will invest in cryptocurrencies. This highly symbolic move will set a precedent for other institutional investors and accelerate mainstream adoption. 7. The U.S. launches over 100 crypto ETPs With standardized SEC listing rules, the market will see more than 100 new exchange-traded products (ETPs), including single-asset products, index funds, and smart beta strategies. 8. Crypto-related equities outperform tech stocks Shares of crypto-native companies such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy will outperform traditional technology stocks, as Wall Street continues to underestimate their diversified business models and long-term growth potential. 9. Prediction markets reach record open interest Driven by major global events such as the World Cup and U.S. midterm elections, prediction markets led by Polymarket will see open interest surpass the records set during the 2024 U.S. presidential election. 10. Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities declines significantly Bitcoin will increasingly decouple from equity markets, with price dynamics driven more by crypto-native factors such as regulation and institutional adoption, rather than macroeconomic conditions or U.S. stock market movements.

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