Davidzmorris

@davidzmorris

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Apple has released a new research paper showing that LLMs can't reason. It's a major blow to the worldview of many AI boosters.Large Language Models, trained on large amounts of existing human language or images, are the basis for tools like ChatGPT. Current AI leaders like Sam Altman have said LLMs can be the path to "AGI," or Artificial General Intelligece - superintelligent machines that can mimic all human cognition. But LLMs are not built to understand anything - merely to measure and then mimic. And LLMs have been hitting a peformance wall - that's why we have seven "GPT 4.x" models, but no "GPT 5" - 5 is meant to indicate the achievement of AGI. A new concept called "chain of reasoning" or "chain of thought" has been implemented to help LLMs reason. Apple tested these newer Chain of Thought LLM models - also called Large Reasoning Models. https://davidzmorris.substack.com/p/apples-llm-debunking-has-the-agi

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New today at Dark Markets: Analysis of the new Apple paper showing breakdowns in LLM/LRM reasoning ... and why Apple's cautious AI strategy was the smart play in the end. https://davidzmorris.substack.com/p/apples-llm-debunking-has-the-agi

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Table of Contents for "Stealing the Future: Sam Bankman-Fried, Elite Fraud, and the Cult of Techno-Utopia." Coming October 2025 from Repeater Books

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I got the chance to do something journos basically never do anymore: write a 5,000 word (20 page!) account of U.S.A. v. Karony. (#safemoon) We've gotten some truly passionate feedback on it - there is still demand for this kind of deep dive. But the business model is gone. Please support Protos and myself, we're both increasingly rare birds. https://protos.com/long-read-how-john-karony-went-from-visionary-to-convicted-fraudster/

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Special Edition of Dark Markets this morning: why John Karony and Sam Bankman-Fried are so different I've spent years thinking about SBF and FTX - a dark, strange, frankly disturbing story. By contrast, Karony and #SafeMoon are almost comforting. https://tinyurl.com/2by5cbuj

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Safemoon criminal trial update: https://x.com/davidzmorris/status/1925193536510546319?t=cWiDxDxRtwngeTFemX4WEA&s=19

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Coming tomorrow in Dark Markets

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It's still in development, but I have finally reclaimed my personal website from squatters. Lots of old crypto articles going back to 2013, along with fiction, research, and even some old music: https://davidzmorris.com

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Some quick lunchtime impressions from Day 1 of the SafeMoon criminal trial, U.S. v. John Karony. Key point: Karony’s court-appointed defense lawyer is far better than you'd assume. https://youtube.com/shorts/4uHa873-eUs?si=qHNfwbausYF8PItO

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Tomorrow's Dark Markets is a banger.

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Just jury selection in #safemoon today, but a few insights: - Trial expected to run May 6-May 26 - Figures relevant to the trial include parents Bradford and Jennifer Karony. This doesn't mean they'll testify, but it's possible. - Companies relevant include Binance, Central Bank of Utah, and Ronin real estate and Crypto groups. More details coming in Dark Markets. Link in Header.

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New today: Sam Bankman-Fried’s life was shaped by the Effective Altruist case for “Earning to Give” - taking well-paying jobs, like in finance or tech startups, rather than directly trying to make the world a better place. https://tinyurl.com/3tnbdf6v It’s a perversely conservative argument - a way to reconceptualize service to the status quo as pursuit of the common good. It’s also tailor-made for individuals with few real passions, talents, or individuality.

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New update yesterday about Netflix’s 8-episode FTX series, produced by the Obama’s firm and with filming beginning this summer. It seems likely to be a fairly serious project, from the director of “The Imitation Game.” It joins two other projects in development: - Lenha Dunham is scripting a movie for Apple TV+ based on Michael Lewis’ “Going Infinite,” which will be one to watch - what does a comedy writer do with a book that tried to defend its wildly criminal subjects? Dunham is great at writing self-destructive idiots - but that might be awkward for Lewis, who was very friendly with the family. - There is also supposedly an Amazon series in production tied to the Russo Brothers (Marvel directors). But that was supposed to start filming in Spring of 2023 and there hasn’t been a bit of news about it since, so that one might be dead. https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/julia-garner-caroline-ellison-ftx-series-netflix-1236385385/

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SAFEMOON criminal trial starts in EDNY next week. Will be covering it old-school style (only question is whether for myself or another outlet). Shill me the craziest elements of Safemoon's hilarous grift!

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Alpha leak for warpcast: I'll be in Toronto May 13 to do a Roundtable for Use Case, a new prestige crypto publication. If you want to pick my brain about communication issues in brypto, I'll be here: https://lu.ma/rlgprzg0?tk=Bfrpo1

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I've been thinking about Foundation and Dune in relation to Sam Bankman-Fried, Rationalists and EAs for like a year. I think I finally cracked it. Asimov posits "psychohistory" as a functional mathematics of prediction. EA shares the faith. Frank Herbert says "hold up."

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Anyone else's tipping borked?

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Pretty hefty news roundup at Dark Markets this week (and every week!). Highlights: - Revisiting the Zizians - Was Pump.Fun cofounder a teenage rug-puller? - Charges dismissed against Richard Heart - Thanks Trump! - Richard Stanek, America's Fakest Author - Memecoin Money Laundering https://davidzmorris.substack.com/p/men-explain-zizian-decision-theory

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I'll be at The Forever Library side event @farcon, pretty stoked to see such a left-field literary thing. Makes sense though, farcaster is a *writing platform*, first and foremost. https://lu.ma/z22znls4?tk=tSNAa9

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Sam Bankman-Fried told his psychiatrist he felt like he only had five years to make a global impact, a sense of emergency that helped justify his crimes. My latest book excerpt explores why the same panic was widespread among EAs and Rationalists - and why national politics are following Bankman-Fried's blueprint. Silicon Valley techno-utopianism believes that a few high-IQ individuals can predict the future - so they deserve all the power. But their naive Newtonian understanding of reality also implies current, individual responsibility for the vastness of eternity, leaving adherents in a state of panic, chugging amphetamines - and justifying some very destructive, short-term decisions. https://davidzmorris.substack.com/p/the-future-as-an-emergency-part-1

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