davey_juice

@davey-juice

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Lots of Bitcoin + Runes alpha flying around in the Discord. It’s Runes June incoming. Might shut the doors if it gets too manic. 👉

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SUI v SEI Surely it can't be that easy, right?

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Me: "don't FOMO, don't FOMO, don't FOMO." *checks Telegram* F*CK

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Interestingly, last time Capo said "something feels off", it marked the local top in April '24.

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If we actually run this back, simulation confirmed. BTC

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Early September I said if BTC can reclaim the 4H 200s and take out the prior local high at 65K, I felt that had to be considered particularly bullish. BTC made it's 65k high, lost the 4h 200s (1), reclaimed the 4H 200s (2) and took out the high (3) and then dropped perfectly into the next window for a low and found a higher low (4). For this reason, I personally find it hard not to bullish here. I am aware there are 101 arguments as to why Oct/Nov won't see new ATHs, and maybe they are correct - certainly if we lose the cycle low at 59k then it's a bad look. But strength is strength and weakness is weakness, and AFAIC I see more strength now than weakness. Equally, if weakness arises, I am ready to pivot. Let's see if we can finish Uptober strong.

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One chart I've been eyeing a lot over the past few days is INJ I took some spot exposure here, and will bid more if we pull back deeper. 17 would be a strong buy for me (assuming other market factors are agreeable) Suspect a nice move could be brewing.

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Watching TAO on the medium time frames - questioning whether what we're watching form is a local top before a bigger correction. (Per past tweets, ~370ish would be the prime target if so IMO) Having said that, I'd assume to get there, BTC is coming down with it. Given that BTC as I see it is at a pretty pivotal point from a cycle perspective, Bitcoin breaking down here would likely mean most if not all of Q4 is likely cooked. Very mixed feelings and thoughts about PA across the board atm. Trying to remain neutral and keep an objective view.

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LTF TAO short idea Will use 0.5% size if taking it Something I really need to work on / develop a better understanding of is execution. Looking for "trigger" signs as a trade approaches/unfolds. Something I'm going to be mindful of if I'm active if/when this level comes

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Took a spot position in ALPH here R/R is decent, if it's going to bounce it's likely here IMO Few layers of confluence on the level - lose this level and I'll cut the position. Almost a 48R back to prior ATH

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Another primed looking chart here IMO is RUNE Currently sitting in this daily range. Would really like to see one more push down to undercut the low at 4.42 before the end of the week. If closing the daily above the swing high 5.35 then I imagine it'll run from there.

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3 charts that look primed right now IMO are SEI, INJ and RUNE If market conditions permit, I suspect these run hard. What other charts look good?

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As far as I'm concerned BTC just found it's cycle low. As I said yesterday, IF Q4 is to be predominately bullish, yesterday's low holds and it starts from today. Meanwhile, Capo doubling down on his bearish thesis. Which begs the question, does Capo-inversion continue? Or is this the beginning of his "hero arc", setting up for a grand finale bull trap at a later date?

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SEI looks interesting. Would be like to bid at <0.35 if it ends up coming back that far.

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QUIL approaching an interesting level. This is where you want to see it bounce IMO.

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Took a scalp short on KAS here 0.5% size Idea based on LTF trend continuation after 1D BoS 5.4RR Will update with outcome.

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HTF thoughts on TRIAS I would say it's an important weekly close ahead for TRIAS. Currently tapping HTF demand, if the weekly trend were to reverse, you'd expect it to start from here IMO. 5.50 is the weekly SH to watch for reversal confirmation as I see it. Potential area of supply sitting just above, so a weekly structure shift + sell off into supply might make for a good pullback opportunity before resumption. Going to keep tabs on this one.

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Took a little patience, but QUBIC returned back to base. Took a position here (spot) Invalidation: daily close below 1680/B Target: 3000/B ~6.5RR

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Me: "You need to let go of the idea that you're going to figure out exactly how to pre-empt most if not all of the markets movements." Also me: "f*ck it let's keep trying." BTC

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