Hunter (cpthunter)

To sum up, the current price is in the middle region of the 4h supply and demand, where the risk-reward ratio for both long and short positions is not high. It is better to continue observing and wait for a break above 68,500 to new highs or a confirmed breakdown below 64,000 before entering a trend short position, which would offer a better chance of success and risk-reward ratio. Moreover, quantitative strategies have fully turned bearish and are shorting. Patience is key to waiting for a structure with a higher level of certainty. Not making a trade means not incurring losses, and not losing is earning.

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Since this large wedge pattern has run to its end, the probability of the price swinging back and forth in the short term has greatly increased. Therefore, I will keep my hands off until a definitive signal appears. In summary, the current position is somewhat awkward for both long and short positions. Rising wedges typically retrace after a breakdown, and I would rather choose to test a short position on the high side during a price retracement than chase a short on the low side, which is closer to the demand below. As for going long, I would wait until the price breaks above 66,800 before entering. The take-profit level at 68,500 seems a bit small, making it less cost-effective.

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BTC is facing a critical test as the price has now touched the lower boundary of the entire uptrend's rising wedge pattern. Additionally, a potential small consolidation box has formed on the 1h timeframe, which, aside from the slightly short duration of the consolidation, can be seen as a key structure in determining whether this bullish trend will end. In the short term, this small consolidation box is currently being supported by the uptrend line, but I do not favor using trend lines with a steep slope as a basis for trading. Therefore, I still recommend using the upper and lower boundaries of the 1h consolidation box as key price levels to watch for a breakout before making trades. It is important to note that the possibility of a false breakout or false breakdown at the upper and lower boundaries of the 1h box exists. Without seeing a confirmed breakout or breakdown on the 1h chart, the risk of chasing shorts or longs is still quite high.

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Recommendation: Hold your tokens. Many altcoins are just starting to show upward momentum on daily charts: CHR, STX, FTM, ZK, AR ETH and its trio: UNI, ENS, SSV Japanese Ethereum (ASTR), Korean Ethereum (KLAY)

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If the market decides to leave this gap and break through $63,800 on Monday, the trend will reverse from a mid-term bearish trend to a short-term bullish trend. However, if this gap is filled immediately after the CME opens, as per historical patterns, the overall market will remain in a bearish trend with a consolidation phase, and I will continue to maintain my long-term bearish outlook. From a technical perspective, the current structure of BTC's oscillating upward movement still belongs to a low-volume ascending wedge or ascending channel structure, which technically favors the bears. This largely aligns with the potential path I speculated on July 5, except for a brief break above the wedge's upper boundary, with no major deviations. Therefore, we only need to watch whether this daily level breakout is a true breakout or a false breakout.

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